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The Right Time to Buy a Sacrificial Animal: A Data Driven Approach

The Right Time to Buy a Sacrificial Animal: A Data Driven Approach

With Eid-ul-Adha approaching, many of you will be wondering what’s the best time to buy sacrificial animals (qurbani ke janwar). While no one can be sure about it due to the current economic situation in the country, we can nonetheless analyze last year’s data and forecast current trends. 

Let us start with the overall price difference of sacrificial animals as compared to the previous year.

Difference from Last Year

According to our data (OLX Pakistan data), there has been upto 49% increase in overall livestock median prices since last year. This number is quite high due to the massive increase in the prices of Dumba (39%) and Kaja (49%). However, the average median price increase for other sacrificial animals is around 16%. Here are the price differences of each sacrificial animal as compared to previous year.

Animal20212022%Change
Cow165,750178,2148%
Bakra /  Goat38,75743,36212%
Bull / Bachra / Wacha171,400215,50026%
Dumba43,35060,32739%
Kajla53,95080,35749%
sacrificial-animals-pride-comparison-2022-vs-2021

As per this chart, it is important to note that prices of dumba and kajla have increased massively. The median cow prices are least affected as they have increased by around 8%. On the contrary, the prices of bulls are up massively with a 29% increase.

Remember that these are median prices as per the listings on OLX Pakistan. The actual prices may vary depending upon numerous factors (most importantly, race / nasal/ size / weight/ color/ economic situation, etc.). 

Analyzing the Data

Around 3 weeks are left in the Eid-ul-Adha 2022. We will analyze sacrificial animal data from May-end 2021 to just over June-mid 2021 and compare it with the same period of 2022. It will help us see if the previous year’s trends match the current year and forecast upcoming price trends.

Bakra / Goat

We know that median prices of goats are among the least increased as compared to the previous year. Let us see what the data says about their week-over-week price trend when we compare this year with previous year.  

No.Period before eid2021 Price Trends 2022 Price Trends
1May-End to June-Start / 22nd week
(31 May to 6 June) – 2021
(30 May to 5 June) – 2022
Decrease (35,500) Increase (45,000)
2June (start to mid) / 23rd week
(7 June to 13 June) – 2021
(6 June to 12 June) – 2022
Increase (42,500)Increase (46,000)
3June-Mid / 24th week
(14 June to 20 June) – 2021
(13 June to 19 June) – 2022
Decrease (40,000)Increase (50,000)
4June (Mid to end) / 25th week
(21 June to 27 June) – 2021
(20 June to 26 June) – 2022
Increase (42,500)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)
5June-End to July-Start / 26th week
(28 June to 04 July) – 2021
(27 June to 03 July) – 2022
Unchanged (42,500)Might remain unchanged (as shown by previous year’s data)
61 week before EidDecrease (37,500)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)

As per the data, the median price trend this year is a bit different as compared to the previous year. It is mainly due to the massive fuel price hike during May to June 2022. If we assume that the upcoming trend will be the same as previous year (by taking other variables constant) the prices might increase from 20th June to 26th June. Then they might remain unchanged till 3rd July and might decline in the last week before Eid.

Are you going to wait till the last week before Eid to buy bakra or get it now?

bakra-buying-time-analysis

Dumba

Due to the demand and supply gap, the median prices of Dumba are up massively as compared to the previous year. There are many other factors contributing to their price hike. Let us compare their median price trend (week-over-week) for this year with the same period last year. 

No.Period before eid2021 Price Trends 2022 Price Trends
1May-End to June-Start / 22nd week
(31 May to 6 June) – 2021
(30 May to 5 June) – 2022
Decrease (32,500)Increase (60,000)
2June (start to mid) / 23rd week
(7 June to 13 June) – 2021
(6 June to 12 June) – 2022
Increase (42,000)Unchanged (60,000)
3June-Mid / 24th week
(14 June to 20 June) – 2021
(13 June to 19 June) – 2022
Increase (44,000)Increase (60,786)
4June (Mid to end) / 25th week
(21 June to 27 June) – 2021
(20 June to 26 June) – 2022
Increase (45,000)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)
5June-End to July-Start / 26th week
(28 June to 04 July) – 2021
(27 June to 03 July) – 2022
Increase (55,000)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)
61 week before EidDecrease (43,000)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)

The median price trend for Dumba is a bit different at the start of this comparison. However, it is the same in the 24th week. If this trend will be the same for upcoming weeks as compared to previous year, the median prices of Dumba might increase in the 25th and 26th weeks as per the data. However, there might be a decline in median prices in the last week before Eid. Would you wait till last week to buy Dumba or get it now?

time-to-buy-sacrificial-animal

Kajla

Just like Dumba, median prices of Kajla (also known as kajla chatra) have also increased massively as compared to previous year. Here is a week-over-week comparison of its price trend this year vs previous year, same period.

No.Period before eid2021 Price Trends 2022 Price Trends
1May-End to June-Start / 22nd week
(31 May to 6 June) – 2021
(30 May to 5 June) – 2022
Increase (53,000)Increase (70,000)
2June (start to mid) / 23rd week
(7 June to 13 June) – 2021
(6 June to 12 June) – 2022
Increase (63,000)Increase (85,000)
3June-Mid / 24th week
(14 June to 20 June) – 2021
(13 June to 19 June) – 2022
Decrease (49,000)Decrease (80,000)
4June (Mid to end) / 25th week
(21 June to 27 June) – 2021
(20 June to 26 June) – 2022
Increase (50,000)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)
5June-End to July-Start / 26th week
(28 June to 04 July) – 2021
(27 June to 03 July) – 2022
Increase (60,000)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)
61 week before EidIncrease (65,000)Might increase (as shown by previous year’s data)

Surprisingly, the median price trend data for Kajla is the same in 2022 as it was in 2021. As per the data, the best time to buy Kajla might be now as the prices are expected to go up.

time-to-buy-sacrificial-animal

Bull / Bachra / Wacha

Bull is a pretty popular sacrificial animal which is also sold as “bachra” and “wacha”. Its prices are also up compared to last year. Let us compare its week-over-week current median price trends with the previous year’s.

No.Period before eid2021 Price Trends2022 Price Trends
1May-End to June-Start / 22nd week
(31 May to 6 June) – 2021
(30 May to 5 June) – 2022
Increase (17,833)Increase
2June (start to mid) / 23rd week
(7 June to 13 June) – 2021 
(6 June to 12 June) – 2022
Increase (173,667)Increase (209,167)
3June-Mid / 24th week
(14 June to 20 June) – 2021
(13 June to 19 June) – 2022
Increase (180,833)Decrease (198,333)
4June (Mid to end) / 25th week
(21 June to 27 June) – 2021
(20 June to 26 June) – 2022
Decrease (168,333)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)
5June-End to July-Start / 26th week
(28 June to 04 July) – 2021
(27 June to 03 July) – 2022
Decrease (160,000)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)
61 week before EidDecrease (125,833)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)

The median price trend for Bull is almost the same for both 2021 and 2022. Surprisingly, the prices might start to decline now as shown by the data. So, you may buy Bull at any time from now on.

time-to-buy-sacrificial-animal

Cow

Just like bulls, cows are also among pretty popular sacrificial animals. Their median prices are the least affected as compared to previous year. Let us see the 2021 vs 2022 week-over-week median price trends.

No.Period before eid2021 Price Trends 2022 Price Trends
1May-End to June-Start / 22nd week
(31 May to 6 June) – 2021
(30 May to 5 June) – 2022
Unchanged (190,000)Increase (190,000)
2June (start to mid) / 23rd week
(7 June to 13 June) – 2021 
(6 June to 12 June) – 2022
Unchanged (190,000)Unchanged (190,000)
3June-Mid / 24th week
(14 June to 20 June) – 2021
(13 June to 19 June) – 2022
Increase (195,000)Decrease (160,000)
4June (Mid to end) / 25th week
(21 June to 27 June) – 2021
(20 June to 26 June) – 2022
Decrease (167,500)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)
5June-End to July-Start / 26th week
(28 June to 04 July) – 2021
(27 June to 03 July) – 2022
Decrease (160,000)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)
61 week before EidDecrease (145,000)Might decrease (as shown by previous year’s data)

The cow’s median price trend for 2022 has some similarities with 2021. If we assume that the trend will be the same as last year’s, then the prices might continue to decrease till Eid-ul-Adha 2022. So, you may buy Cow right now or at any time before Eid.

time-to-buy-sacrificial-animal

Reasons Behind Price Increase

There are numerous reasons behind the massive increase in median prices of sacrificial animals this year. The major reason is inflation in the country, including high fuel prices. As people bring sacrificial animals from all over the country, this year’s transportation cost is way higher than previous years. This translates into higher prices for sacrificial animals. 

Final Verdict

Based on OLX Pakistan’s data, we have forecasted the rates of various sacrificial animals for you. In this blog, you’ll find information on the best time to buy a particular sacrificial animal when its price is expected to be the lowest. However, you should analyze all the elements as the price changes can be affected by numerous other factors. 

Disclaimer:

The above-mentioned data is obtained from ads posted on OLX Pakistan. These are median prices of sacrificial animals as per those ads. The actual price on average may decrease from  5% to 10% due to negotiations. Also, the median market prices may vary from the median prices of OLX Pakistan ads. The forecast in this blog can be affected by numerous factors such as fuel prices, demand and supply, government policies, inflation, etc.

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