How Much Can Per Litre of Petrol Cost on 16 February? 3 Scary + 1 Nightmare Scenario

How Much Can Per Litre of Petrol Cost on 16 February? 3 Scary + 1 Nightmare Scenario

It’s a foregone conclusion that petroleum prices are going to further increase in Pakistan in the foreseeable future. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants the government to meet its revenue shortfall by increasing taxes on a variety of sources – petroleum being one. 

So desperate is the government to raise revenues and appease its foreign masters that it exponentially raised the per liter price of all four petroleum products on January 29 instead of February 1. This policy of appeasement is likely to continue. 

In this blog, we will predict the per litre petrol price in pakistan based on the data we’ve gathered from a variety of sources. These numbers will look scary but the point is not to disturb the mental peace of our readers but to help them prepare for the hard times ahead. 

So here goes. 

Scenario 1: Scary

The IMF wants the government to go full throttle. It wants 17% GST imposed on petroleum products. It is likely that the government will give in. So, assuming that all else stays the same and only 17% GST is imposed on current petroleum products, this could be the new prices on or before February 16, 2023. 

ProductOld PriceNew PriceDifference
High Speed Diesel262.80307.4744.67
Kerosene Oil189.83222.1032.27
Light Diesel187218.7931.79

If you think this is scary, keep reading. 

Scenario 2: Very Scary

It can happen that despite the IMFs pressure, the government may drag its feet on imposition of GST for fear of political and public backlash. However, it would still have to raise prices to meet its revenue shortfall. What can happen is that the government forgoes (for now) imposition of GST and raises the per litre price of petrol based on recent OPEC price hike and devaluation of Rupee against the US Dollar. 

Based on it, these could be the per litre prices of petroleum products in Pakistan on February 16, if not before. 

ProductOld PriceNew PriceDifference
High Speed Diesel262.80336.3873.58
Kerosene Oil189.83242.9853.15
Light Diesel187239.3652.36

If you think this is scary, keep reading.

Scenario 3: Full Horror Show

Given the current state of political and economic affairs in Pakistan, do not be surprised if the government acquiesces to all and everything that the IMF asks for. This would essentially mean raising the petrol prices to historic proportions. This would include foreign exchange fluctuations, OPEC inflation and GST. 

ProductOld PriceNew PriceDifference
High Speed Diesel262.80394.20131.40
Kerosene Oil189.83284.7494.91
Light Diesel187280.5093.50

If you think it can’t get any worse, keep reading.

Scenario 4: Screaming 

Imagine petrol prices have shot up but there’s no petrol being sold in the country.

This is the worst case scenario, and it can happen too as Pakistan’s current foreign exchange reserves are less than $4 billion. As the country reels from the balance of payments crisis, banks are not issuing fresh letters of credit or LCs to purchase petroleum products. The current petroleum reserves in the country are good till February 14/15.   

On February 16, 2023, we can wake up and get ready to go… but there is nothing to go to as  life comes to a grinding halt. 

There must be some kind of way out of here

A famous 19th century philosopher once said: The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it. 

In this blog, we’ve warned you of what may come next in Pakistan. However, it is of no help if we can’t help you meet this challenge head on. So, what to do?

Sure you can buy an electric car or switch to a hybrid, maybe give up your four-wheeler for a two-wheeler, but believe it or not, there is a much simpler and free solution to this problem. 



If you are interested in knowing more about what and how to carpool, read: 

5 Reasons You Should Make Carpooling a Practice

If you would like to further explore this option, check out OLX Pakistan Car Pool classified ads

You may also like to read: 

Fuel Prices in Pakistan: The Bomb Exploded Sooner Than Expected

How to Survive Mehngai

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